Market Research – Weekly Market Primer (12/03/2018) – Download PDF
HOT & COLD Cryptos
- HOT : ZEC – Zcash was added Coinbase with a USDC pairing. It has sold off since the listing, but when Coinbase pairs it with USD we expect to see a strong rally. Zcash is also on the radar of several large ETFs and institutions and we expect it to have staying power, becoming a “Blue Chip” cryptocurrency. ZEC to outperform for the remainder of Q4.
- HOT : XLM – Stellar may get listed on Coinbase in the coming weeks. XLM/BTC has been outperforming even while XLM/USDT has been selling off. We see this as a sign of strength and it may be cheap relative to other cryptocurrencies.
- COLD : EOS – EOS is the weakest performing major cryptocurrency this week, (17.98%). We are seeing continued weakness due to persistent wallet hacks leading to weak confidence by the public. In addition, a “voting” scandal on the project still lingers, alleged that the 21 Block Producers are self-dealing. Add this with a weak technical picture and EOS is expected to continue to underperform.
- BTC/USD support levels; 3500, 3200, 3000, 1700: resistance levels; 4500, 5000, 5600, 6000, 6200
- ETH/USD support levels; 100, 80-82, 60, 50, 20-30: resistance levels; 135, 165, 180, 200, 225, 250
- LTC/USD support levels; 35, 20, 5: resistance levels; 45, 48, 56, 60, 70
- BAT/USD support levels; 0.16-0.15, 0.12, 0.09: resistance levels; 0.195, 0.23, 0.30, 0.40, 0.45
- XRP/USD support levels; 0.33, 0.30, 0.25: resistance levels; 0.37, 0.42, 0.56, 0.63, 0.79
- XLM/USD support levels; 0.13, 0.095, 0.07, 0.04: resistance levels; 0.175, 0.20, 0.26, 0.285-0.305
- ZEC/USD support levels; 100, 86, 50, 25: resistance levels; 145, 165, 225-230
- ZRX/USD support levels; 0.32, 0.26, 0.16: resistance levels; 0.50, 0.55, 0.65, 0.83, 0.96
- ETH/BTC testing 0.027 and setting up for a test of 0.024 (18 month low); may be a good pivot point for ETH
- BTC/USD SHROTS and ETH/USD SHORTS continue to strengthen and we expect continued strength. As a result we are very bearish on the entire cryptocurrency market
- Rumors XLM, XRP, and ADA may be added to Coinbase in the coming weeks
- Bitcoin Cash fork to ABC and SV has been detrimental and the cryptocurrency continues to underperform; once Coinbase supports the fork and enable trading we expect these assets to rally
- Cryptocurrency market cap down to $126bln from $167bln last week
- We expect the overall cryptocurrency market cap to bottom out at ~$100bln
- Alt-coin market has decrease from $79bln to $58bln. We are watching this closely to determine direction
- We expect alt-coin market cap to bottom out at $35-50bln
- BTC dominance has held steady around 53% over the last week. We expect BTC dominance to remain in a range of 48% – 58% for the near future
What We’re Reading
- G20 Leaders Pledge Crypto-Asset Regulation After Buenos Aires Meeting. See more HERE
- SEC’s Clayton needs to see key upgrades in cryptocurrency markets before approving a bitcoin ETF. See more HERE
- Security Token Offerings ‘Illegal,’ Says Beijing Financial Watchdog. See more HERE
- Banking Giant State Street Is Waiting on Client Demand for Crypto Custody. See more HERE
- New Crypto Mining Malware Seen to ‘Evolve,’ Say Researchers. See more HERE
- Japanese Exchange GMO Coin Set to Resume Bitcoin Cash Trading on ABC’s Chain. See more HERE
- Bitcoin Faces Second Largest Difficulty Drop in History After Latest Adjustment. See more HERE
- South Korea’s Finance Ministry Considers Taxing Crypto and ICOs, New Minister Reveals. See more HERE
- Monumental: Federal Court Rules Case in Favor of Crypto ICO Against SEC. See more HERE
Charts of the Week
BTC/USD (4HR Candles) – https://www.tradingview.com/x/t21GSYaF/
- BTC/USD testing support at $3500
- We expect $3500 to break and $3200-3000 supports to be tested and hold
- Eventually, causing a retest of resistance at $4500 and $5000
BTC/USD SHORTS (4HR Candles) – https://www.tradingview.com/x/VSp23KA3/
- BTC/USD SHORTS are showing continued strength. We expect this strength to continue over the next few days as BTC/USD tries to test support at $3200-3000
Heatmap of the Week
Cryptocurrency Heatmap (11/26/20xx8 – 12/03/2018)
Cryptocurrency Correlation Matrix (Last 90 Days)
- Correlations between BTC and several alt-coins have broken down
- This may be a sign of strength or quality amongst the alt-coins
- XRP is a great example – its correlation has decreased from .75 to .56 over the last month
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