Market Research – Weekly Market Primer (12/03/2018) – Download PDF

 

HOT & COLD Cryptos

  • HOT : ZEC – Zcash was added Coinbase with a USDC pairing. It has sold off since the listing, but when Coinbase pairs it with USD we expect to see a strong rally. Zcash is also on the radar of several large ETFs and institutions and we expect it to have staying power, becoming a “Blue Chip” cryptocurrency. ZEC to outperform for the remainder of Q4.
  • HOT : XLM – Stellar may get listed on Coinbase in the coming weeks. XLM/BTC has been outperforming even while XLM/USDT has been selling off. We see this as a sign of strength and it may be cheap relative to other cryptocurrencies.
  • COLD : EOS – EOS is the weakest performing major cryptocurrency this week, (17.98%). We are seeing continued weakness due to persistent wallet hacks leading to weak confidence by the public. In addition, a “voting” scandal on the project still lingers, alleged that the 21 Block Producers are self-dealing. Add this with a weak technical picture and EOS is expected to continue to underperform.

Market Overview

  • BTC/USD support levels; 3500, 3200, 3000, 1700: resistance levels; 4500, 5000, 5600, 6000, 6200
  • ETH/USD support levels; 100, 80-82, 60, 50, 20-30: resistance levels; 135, 165, 180, 200, 225, 250
  • LTC/USD support levels; 35, 20, 5: resistance levels; 45, 48, 56, 60, 70
  • BAT/USD support levels; 0.16-0.15, 0.12, 0.09: resistance levels; 0.195, 0.23, 0.30, 0.40, 0.45
  • XRP/USD support levels; 0.33, 0.30, 0.25: resistance levels; 0.37, 0.42, 0.56, 0.63, 0.79
  • XLM/USD support levels; 0.13, 0.095, 0.07, 0.04: resistance levels; 0.175, 0.20, 0.26, 0.285-0.305
  • ZEC/USD support levels; 100, 86, 50, 25: resistance levels; 145, 165, 225-230
  • ZRX/USD support levels; 0.32, 0.26, 0.16: resistance levels; 0.50, 0.55, 0.65, 0.83, 0.96
  • ETH/BTC testing 0.027 and setting up for a test of 0.024 (18 month low); may be a good pivot point for ETH
  • BTC/USD SHROTS and ETH/USD SHORTS continue to strengthen and we expect continued strength. As a result we are very bearish on the entire cryptocurrency market
  • Rumors XLM, XRP, and ADA may be added to Coinbase in the coming weeks
  • Bitcoin Cash fork to ABC and SV has been detrimental and the cryptocurrency continues to underperform; once Coinbase supports the fork and enable trading we expect these assets to rally
  • Cryptocurrency market cap down to $126bln from $167bln last week
  • We expect the overall cryptocurrency market cap to bottom out at ~$100bln
  • Alt-coin market has decrease from $79bln to $58bln. We are watching this closely to determine direction
  • We expect alt-coin market cap to bottom out at $35-50bln
  • BTC dominance has held steady around 53% over the last week. We expect BTC dominance to remain in a range of 48% – 58% for the near future

What We’re Reading

  • G20 Leaders Pledge Crypto-Asset Regulation After Buenos Aires Meeting. See more HERE
  • SEC’s Clayton needs to see key upgrades in cryptocurrency markets before approving a bitcoin ETF. See more HERE
  • Security Token Offerings ‘Illegal,’ Says Beijing Financial Watchdog. See more HERE
  • Banking Giant State Street Is Waiting on Client Demand for Crypto Custody. See more HERE
  • New Crypto Mining Malware Seen to ‘Evolve,’ Say Researchers. See more HERE
  • Japanese Exchange GMO Coin Set to Resume Bitcoin Cash Trading on ABC’s Chain. See more HERE
  • Bitcoin Faces Second Largest Difficulty Drop in History After Latest Adjustment. See more HERE
  • South Korea’s Finance Ministry Considers Taxing Crypto and ICOs, New Minister Reveals. See more HERE
  • Monumental: Federal Court Rules Case in Favor of Crypto ICO Against SEC. See more HERE

Charts of the Week

BTC/USD (4HR Candles) – https://www.tradingview.com/x/t21GSYaF/

  

  • BTC/USD testing support at $3500
  • We expect $3500 to break and $3200-3000 supports to be tested and hold
  • Eventually, causing a retest of resistance at $4500 and $5000

BTC/USD SHORTS (4HR Candles) – https://www.tradingview.com/x/VSp23KA3/

  • BTC/USD SHORTS are showing continued strength. We expect this strength to continue over the next few days as BTC/USD tries to test support at $3200-3000

Heatmap of the Week

Cryptocurrency Heatmap (11/26/20xx8 – 12/03/2018)

Cryptocurrency Correlation Matrix  (Last 90 Days)

  • Correlations between BTC and several alt-coins have broken down
  • This may be a sign of strength or quality amongst the alt-coins
  • XRP is a great example – its correlation has decreased from .75 to .56 over the last month

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