11192018 Market Primer

Market Research – Weekly Market Primer (11/19/2018) – Download PDF

HOT & COLD Cryptos

• HOT : ZEC – Zcash has had a strong week and we expect more strength. It may get listed on Coinbase in the coming weeks. We expect ZEC to outperform for the remainder of Q4. Read more HERE
• HOT : XRP – XRP has overtaken ETH as the #2 cryptocurrency by volume traded and market cap. It has continued to show strength and stability even in the bearish market we are currently experiencing. In addition, it has several major news headlines that have given it a boost. We expect XRP to remain fairly stable to mildly bullish over the next week. We like long XRP/BTC.
• COLD :  BTC – Bitcoin has broken major support levels and $5000 is now in focus. We expect a weak bounce off of $5000 back to $6000; then a continued sell off to $3200. $3200 is the cost of mining 1 Bitcoin in China.

Market Overview

• BTC/USD support levels; 5000, 4000, 3200, 3000: resistance levels; 5600, 6000-6200, 6800, 7400
• ETH/USD support levels; 150, 130, 100: resistance levels; 165, 180, 200, 225, 250
• LTC/USD support levels; 35, 20, 5: resistance levels; 45, 48, 56, 60, 70
• BAT/USD support levels; 0.16, 0.12, 0.09: resistance levels; 0.23, 0.30, 0.40, 0.45
• XRP/USD support levels; 0.42, 0.37, 0.25: resistance levels; 0.56, 0.63, 0.79
• XLM/USD support levels; 0.21, 0.18, 0.14: resistance levels; 0.26, 0.28, .0305, .036
• ZEC/USD support levels; 100, 86, 50, 25: resistance levels; 145, 165, 225-230
• ZRX/USD support levels; 0.35, 0.26, 0.16: resistance levels; 0.55, 0.65, 0.83, 0.96
• BTC/USD SHROTS and ETH/USD SHORTS continue to strengthen and we expect continued strength. As a result we are very bearish on the entire cryptocurrency market
• Rumors ZEC, XLM, XRP, and ADA may be added to Coinbase in the coming weeks
• Bitcoin Cash fork to ABC and SV has been detrimental and the cryptocurrency has lost 50% of value over the last week
• Cryptocurrency market cap down to $167bln from $212bln last week
• We expect the overall cryptocurrency market cap to bottom out at ~$100bln
• Alt-coin market has decrease from $101bln to $79bln. We are watching this closely to determine direction
• We expect alt-coin market cap to bottom out at $35-50bln
• BTC dominance has held steady around 52% over the last week. We expect BTC dominance to remain in a range of 48% – 58% for the near future

What We’re Reading

• What We Know About Bitcoin Cash’s Two Rival Blockchains. See more HERE
• US Election Commission Says Crypto Mining For Political Campaigns Is ‘Permissible’. See more HERE
• Crypto Exchange-Traded Product to Launch on Swiss Stock Exchange. See more HERE
• Cryptocurrency Is ‘a Big Deal’ But Needs Institutional Investment, Says KPMG Report. See more HERE
• Breaking the Peg: Every Stablecoin Has Its Points of Failure. See more HERE
• Bitcoin Cash Hard Fork Battle: Who Is Winning the Hash War. See more HERE
• Tencent Games Forms Partnership with Blockchain Esports Platform. See more HERE
• The Best Wallet for Ripple in 2018. See more HERE
• Market Trends: Ripple Overtakes Ethereum With Ease as ETH Plunges 10%. See more HERE

Charts of the Week

BTC/USD (24HR Candles) – https://www.tradingview.com/x/u4gWsznV/

• BTC/USD has broken major support levels and $5000 is now in focus
• We expect a weak bounce off of $5000 back to $6000; then a continued sell off to $3200
• Fun fact: $3200 is the cost of mining 1 Bitcoin in China

BTC/USD SHORTS (24HR Candles) – https://www.tradingview.com/x/IghoiXid/

• BTC/USD SHORTS are showing strength. We expect this strength to get stronger over the next few days as BTC/USD breaks below $5000.

Heatmap of the Week

Cryptocurrency Heatmap (11/12/2018 – 11/19/2018)

Cryptocurrency Correlation Matrix  (Last 90 Days)

• Correlations between BTC and several alt-coins have broken down
• This may be a sign of strength or quality amongst the alt-coins
• XRP is a great example – its correlation has decreased from .75 to .56 over the last month